SYTYCD Season 10 Top 4 Predictions

Let's talk about the fast-approaching end of season 10.

WHY ARE WE TALKING ABOUT TOP 4 AND THE WINNER WHEN WE'VE ONLY SEEN THE TOP 8 PERFORMANCE?

Because of this season's format (same as Season 9), all of last week's routines will determine the Top 4, which kind of sucks because regardless of the "journey" a contestant has had on the show, the routine they dance on Top 8 night determines whether they have a chance to win this thing or not. Make sense?

WHO ARE THE TOP 6?

The top 6 decided by the Top 8 Performance show are as follows;

1) Amy Yakima (Jazz/Contemporary/whatever they feel like billing her as)
2) Jasmine Harper (Contemporary)
3) Hayley Erbert (Contemporary)
4) Fik-Shun Stegall (Hip Hop)
5) Paul Karmiryan (Latin Ballroom)
6) Aaron Turner (Tap)

WHY DO THESE 6 HAVE THE ABILITY TO BE FINALISTS?

First of all, I think it's absolutely incredible that out of the Top 3 guys, 0 PERCENT are Jazz or Contemporary. I don't feel like looking up the actual facts, but that seems like it's one of the first times (if not THE FIRST TIME) this has happened. Also, three (maybe four) of the original top 20 for me have been complete surprises. Jasmine did nothing for me in Vegas, and neither did Hayley. In the original top 20, because Aaron is the perpetual 21st choice (still don't understand how they chose him over Curtis Holland originally, but, whatever), and because Paul's genre of dance is so different for someone who has a chance of really succeeding, I would not have had these four in the Top 6 based on Vegas/ Top 20 reveal.

Anyways, let's break down each contestant and I'll try to figure out why they've all done so well in the competition.

Amy

She's the favourite, and been the favourite, since her audition. Every single season there's always a "chosen one", a dancer that stands out to the audience from the moment she's made her or his appearance on the show. Melanie Moore is the most blatant example of this, running away with her season with 47% of the entire finale vote (http://insidetv.ew.com/2011/08/12/so-you-think-you-can-dance-melanie-moore-interview/), and basically showing everyone since her gorgeous audition that she was the one to beat. Alex Wong and Eliana Girard are other examples of this. Amy's knocked everything out of the park- period. The only thing we haven't seen her do is a Latin Ballroom number, which, is kind of unlucky if she gets it in the final weeks, because they could tarnish her front-runner status simply because of Latin routine unpopularity among voters.

Fik-Shun

He's adorable. He has the heart. He has the passion.

Paul

Paul, I think, has been the nicest surprise this season. No one even really cared that he won SYTYCD Armenia when he first mentioned it. But recently someone like Nigel said something like "You've won the Armenian version, let's see if you can win the American one". And honestly, it's completely 100% possible. He comes across as humble, yet he's killed every single routine he's been thrown. He's shown that he is versatile, not only by slipping into every genre, but slipping into every character.

Hayley

At first, it surprised me how well she was doing in the competition. She only hit the bottom this last week, even though she's never seemed to stand out in the eyes of the producers/judges. But I think I know why now; she is exactly the type of person 80% of the SYTYCD audience is; young, contemporary-or-jazz-based, classically-trained, has been dancing since the age of 3. She embodies the grand majority of the SYTYCD audience.

Jasmine

Still kinda scratching my head with this one. She is a stunning girl and a beautiful dancer, but she still doesn't seem like Top 6 material for me. Maybe it's because she appears so introverted? Who knows... Her and Aaron did get a bit of a boost at the beginning though, as being billed "a power couple".

Aaron

Goofy, fun-loving, unique. Is a completely different male dancer than, say, Jakob Karr or Danny Tidwell or Billy Bell, but audiences probably find that refreshing.

WHO WILL BE THE FINALISTS?

My personal opinion; Amy and Jasmine for the girls. Absolutely Paul as one of the boys, and it's six to one, half-a-dozen to the other for me between Aaron and Fik-Shun. Both have reason to reach the finals.

The probable option; Amy, Hayley (based solely on Top 8 performances), Paul, Fik-Shun.

WHO WILL WIN? --->




WHO WILL WIN?

There will be a 96% chance of there being one winner this year (according to highly probable, very factual and scientific information based on what I think.) Nothing huge from Nigel and his team as to this announcement, but no news is good news, right? All I could find was this interview with Cat Deeley way back in May;

Though season nine crowned two winners, one male and one female, Deeley says SYTYCD will probably one have one champ this year. "I think there's just going  to be one winner ‘cause it was a bit like, ‘You won…and you've won!' she explains. "But I think the runner-up will probably get a cash prize, like we've done in previous seasons. I think that's the better way of doing it."

Interview pulled from; http://ca.eonline.com/news/418899/so-you-think-you-can-dance-season-10-premiere-host-cat-deeley-teases-raunchy-new-moves

I agree 110% with Cat. It felt strange to have Eliana win last year, and then rush her offstage to bring on the boys and announce the second winner. Season 9 was kind of a guinea pig year.

Let's look at some more stats.

SYTYCD is clearly a young person's game: 60 percent of the winners to date have been aged 18-20, and no one over the age of 24 has won (the oldest runner up was Stephen "Twitch' Boss when he was a positively ancient 25). Some dance styles dominate with 60 percent of the winners contemporary dancers, and only 20 percent of the winners coming from the broad hip-hop, breakdance, animation, popping and krump group. There has been only one ballroom winner (Benji Schwimmer, Season 2) and one ballet winner (the fantastically named Chehon Wespi-Tschopp, Season 9). If you represent tap, belly dancing, jazz, broadway, or martial arts fusion (remember Cole Horibe, Season 9?) then your odds of winning are low. Florida, Georgia and California have each produced 20 percent of the winners, with the rest coming from Arizona, Massachusetts, Texas and Utah.

**Wasn't Eliana Girard also considered ballet?

Anyways, all these stats are from Rob Stephenson, from the Huffington Post (http://www.huffingtonpost.com/rob-stephenson/so-you-think-you-can-danc_2_b_3551284.html). He named Malece, Makenzie and Jenna as the ones to watch because according to statistics (where they live, their age, their genre), they had it all. Jasmine Harper could buck the trend, according to Rob, because of her under-dog, Cyrus-broke-my-heart story. After some more back-and-forth in his article, he concludes to buck his own trend and bet on Aaron. 

Hey, look at that! Look who's still in it! Aaron, Jasmine, and so is Fik-Shun, who he named also as a possible favourite.  

Alright, I'll actually get down to it now. 

For me, considering all of their routines, and partly-considering their ages, states, and genres, as well to all-around likability, it'll probably be between Amy and Paul. They haven't had one dud routine, and the audience seems to love them. Personally, I would like Paul to win, because he would buck SYTYCD tradition and be a male, ballroom dancer to win. 

I would be very surprised if Hayley won. Hayley, I think, will probably exactly follow in Tiffany Maher (S9)'s footsteps. 

What do you think? Shoot me an e-mail; sytycdfansblog@gmail.com . I'll answer all the questions I receive on the blog, with everything remaining completely anonymous, of course. 

PREVIOUS POST; Top 8 Performance Recap + Partner Rankings
SOON TO COME; Top 6 Performance Recap, Partner Rankings + Finalists Revealed
NOT-SO-SOON-TO-COME; What Pieces I'd Like To See Again in the Finale